Would you bet…
Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 84% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $7,963 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 5 minutes ago
At 84%, this market is pricing the next Grok release as strongly favored—a near-certain bet that xAI’s forthcoming model will clear 1440 on Arena.ai’s leaderboard by end of 2026. The bar is specific: the model must appear on the leaderboard, carry “Grok” in its name, and post that score within 24 hours of its debut. $8k in volume suggests thin conviction, though that’s typical for long-dated AI benchmarking bets.
The price reflects two realities. First, xAI has already demonstrated it can build competitive models—Grok-2 reached the leaderboard last year. Second, 1440 is a middling target on Arena.ai’s overall text ranking; it’s not an elite score, which is why the market isn’t pricing this as a coin flip. The real risk isn’t whether xAI releases a model, but whether it *publicly posts* it to this specific leaderboard and whether that particular eval sticks at or above the threshold.
Movement would depend on xAI’s release timeline becoming clearer, or on leaderboard scoring volatility. For now, the price reads as “likely but not locked”—sensible for a 2-year window with a manageable technical target.
FAQ
What does a 84% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 84% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 84% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next xAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise,
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What tech markets can I trade?
AI model releases and benchmarks, big-tech IPOs, antitrust and regulatory outcomes, and product-launch timing.
How current are these?
Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
Best place to trade tech & AI?
Polymarket and Kalshi carry the most tech and AI markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.