Would you bet…
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 36% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $12,925 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 3 days ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? at 36% — an underdog outcome, though a live one. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will…
The market is scheduled to settle on 31 Dec 2026. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 36% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 36% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 36% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwis
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What tech markets can I trade?
AI model releases and benchmarks, big-tech IPOs, antitrust and regulatory outcomes, and product-launch timing.
How current are these?
Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
Best place to trade tech & AI?
Polymarket and Kalshi carry the most tech and AI markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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