Would you bet…
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 41% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $23,162 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 14 seconds ago
At 41%, this market is an underdog—traders are betting against OpenAI’s next GPT model hitting 1480 on Arena.ai’s leaderboard by year-end 2026. The price down 14 points, a signal that conviction in a high-scoring debut has slipped over the past week.
The threshold matters. Arena.ai’s leaderboard ranks models on head-to-head performance; 1480 represents a meaningful bar—strong but not exceptional by frontier standards. OpenAI has been aggressive with model releases, though each iteration typically shows incremental rather than dramatic gains. The resolution hinges on a specific technical condition: the model must appear on the leaderboard within the window, then score at least 1480 on the snapshot date. If OpenAI delays release past late 2026 or prioritizes closed deployment over public benchmarking, the market resolves No.
What would shift the odds? Evidence of imminent model training completion, confirmed leaderboard integration plans, or historical data showing OpenAI’s release cadence accelerating would favor 41%. Conversely, any public signal that the next model targets a later launch or a different evaluation framework could push 59% higher. At current pricing, the market is pricing in real execution risk alongside genuine uncertainty about OpenAI’s timeline.
FAQ
What does a 41% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 41% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 41% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwis
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What tech markets can I trade?
AI model releases and benchmarks, big-tech IPOs, antitrust and regulatory outcomes, and product-launch timing.
How current are these?
Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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