Would you bet…
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 80% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $6,762 volume
- Updated
- 1 month ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? at 80% — strongly favored. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any…
FAQ
What does a 80% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 80% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 80% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolv
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What tech markets can I trade?
AI model releases and benchmarks, big-tech IPOs, antitrust and regulatory outcomes, and product-launch timing.
How current are these?
Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
Best place to trade tech & AI?
Polymarket and Kalshi carry the most tech and AI markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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