Would you bet…
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 86% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $42,745 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 month ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? at 86% — strongly favored. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution…
The market is scheduled to settle on 31 Jul 2026. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 86% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 86% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 86% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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How current are these?
Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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