Would you bet…
Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 20% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $4,973 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 month ago
20% is a long shot, and the market has slipped down 26 points. The pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Hong Kong’s July rainfall will fall short of 400mm—a threshold that sits well below the territory’s historical norm for the month.
Hong Kong averages roughly 400–450mm of precipitation in July, the heart of the southwest monsoon season. The yes side needs an outcome in the bottom quartile of recent history to cash. That’s possible but requires either a weak monsoon pattern or an unusual dry spell. The current $5k suggests limited conviction either way, though the recent down 26 points toward 80% hints that longer-dated weather forecasts or seasonal models may be signaling above-average rainfall. Resolution hinges on Polymarket’s official July total, recorded through 31 July 2026.
For 20% to gain, you’d need credible seasonal forecasts pointing to suppressed moisture. Conversely, any tropical activity or typical monsoon intensification would push 80%. The price is a fair read of a genuinely toss-up event with a slight lean toward wetter-than-threshold conditions.
FAQ
What does a 20% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 20% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 20% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026
Where can I trade it?
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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