Would you bet…
Will Databricks’ valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 20% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $1,191 volume
- Resolves
- 1 Jan 2027
- Updated
- 1 week ago
20% of traders believe Databricks will hit a $225 billion valuation by year-end 2026—a a long shot by the market’s math. The bet has climbed up 3 points, suggesting modest momentum behind the bull case, though $1k remains thin. That price reflects skepticism: even a company growing fast enough to command unicorn status faces a long climb from its last known valuation to a quarter-trillion-dollar mark in two years.
Databricks would need either a blockbuster funding round at that valuation, a public listing at those numbers, or a measured climb through private rounds that compound into the target. The company has raised at a measured pace; its last known round was at $43 billion in 2023. Reaching $225 billion assumes either venture capital discipline breaks and floats a mega-round, or the data-platform market inflates materially and the company captures it faster than current trajectories suggest.
The market 1 January 2027 on NPM pricing via Polymarket. Watch for funding announcements and quarterly performance signals from peer companies—those will set the frame for what’s priced in. At 20%, the market is pricing this as possible but unlikely, which is roughly where the fundamentals sit today.
FAQ
What does a 20% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 20% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 20% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Pri
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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