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Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 83% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $218,253 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2027
- Updated
- 6 days ago
The market has climbed up 15 points, with Anthropic priced at 83%—a strongly favored outcome. At $218k in volume, traders are decisively betting that Anthropic reaches public markets before OpenAI does, with nearly nine times as much capital behind a yes outcome as a no one.
The gap reflects a basic fact: Anthropic has publicly committed to a path toward IPO, while OpenAI has stated no such intention. OpenAI’s structure—a capped-profit subsidiary under a nonprofit parent—adds legal complexity that Anthropic lacks. Anthropic’s valuation (last reported at $15 billion in 2023) and fundraising cadence suggest earlier readiness. But the resolution window runs through December 2027. A material shift would require either company to announce concrete IPO plans, or OpenAI to reverse course and commit to going public first.
That price is a live read of current information, not a forecast. Markets can reprice sharply on strategic announcements.
FAQ
What does a 83% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 83% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 83% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an In
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What tech markets can I trade?
AI model releases and benchmarks, big-tech IPOs, antitrust and regulatory outcomes, and product-launch timing.
How current are these?
Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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