Would you bet…
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 25% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $19,025 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 2 seconds ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? at 25% — a long shot the market largely dismisses. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include…
The market is scheduled to settle on 31 Jul 2026. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 25% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 25% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 25% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Tra
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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