Would you bet…
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 63% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $60,474 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 month ago
63% odds mark this as the favorite, and the market has has climbed up 22 points. The question hinges on a narrow band: whether the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil chokepoint—will average fewer than 20 transits per day in the seven days ending July 31, 2026. The current pricing suggests traders see low odds of such a disruption.
To understand why: the Strait typically handles 20–25 million barrels of oil daily across roughly 20–30 transit calls, according to historical IMF Portwatch data. A reading below 20 would signal either geopolitical escalation, military action, or accident severe enough to throttle traffic significantly. The market has modest $60k, suggesting limited conviction either way, but the weight of positioning remains on 37%.
The resolution depends entirely on IMF Portwatch’s finalized 7-day moving average for that date. Any shift in regional tensions, sanctions enforcement, or infrastructure damage could reweight the odds. For now, the price reflects skepticism that July 2026 will see sustained, dramatic constraint at the Strait.
FAQ
What does a 63% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 63% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 63% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Tra
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A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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