Would you bet…
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 6% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $244,736 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
A 9.0-magnitude earthquake in the next fourteen months is a long shot—and the market prices it accordingly at 6%. That’s roughly where the odds have settled; there’s been barely a point either way over the past week. With $245k in volume, this is a thin market, so moves can be outsized.
The math: magnitude 9.0 quakes are rare. The USGS records only a handful globally per century. The last was the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake. Given the two-year window and the well-mapped subduction zones where such events cluster—Japan, Chile, Alaska, Cascadia—a 94% position reflects both historical frequency and the concentration of seismic risk in known zones.
What would shift this? A major foreshock sequence in a high-risk zone, or a substantive revision in seismic hazard assessments, could move traders to reprice upward. A quiet stretch through mid-2026 would likely reinforce the current read. 31 December 2026 according to Polymarket, so the bar for settlement is clear and observable.
FAQ
What does a 6% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 6% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 6% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geolo
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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How current are these?
Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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