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Will “The Odyssey” Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $17,245 volume
- Resolves
- 19 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 38 minutes ago
The market is pricing “The Odyssey” opening weekend as all but ruled out: 4% odds imply a less-than-7%-in-100 shot at sub-$75M. That’s a tight consensus. The counter-bet, 96%, has slipped down 4 points, suggesting traders have grown more confident the film clears that bar.
The resolution hinges on final three-day figures from The Numbers once July 19 closes—studio estimates don’t count. A sub-$75M opening would be weak for a wide release; the market is essentially betting against that outcome. Liquidity at $17k is modest, so large bets would move the line noticeably.
What shifts this further: pre-release reviews, tracking data, and comparable comps. Positive word-of-mouth or a stronger-than-expected Friday would pull 96% higher. Any sign of softer demand or competition from holdovers would test 4%. As of now, the price reads confidence in a $75M+ debut, but the all but ruled out odds remind you it’s not a certainty.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to how much "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve thi
Where can I trade it?
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
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