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Will “The Odyssey” Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 35% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $13,617 volume
- Resolves
- 19 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
At 35%, this market is pricing a $75–85M opening for “The Odyssey” as an underdog—a narrow band in what will likely be a much wider outcome. The market has in recent trading, and $14k suggests light conviction either way.
The resolution hinges on final domestic opening-weekend grosses from The Numbers, covering July 17–19. A $10M range is tight enough that even modest tracking variance or last-minute audience shifts could push the film above or below. What matters: early tracking data from studios and third-party forecasters, weekday-to-weekend hold patterns, and whether any major releases compete for the same audience that weekend. Traders watching pre-release metrics—social sentiment, advance sales velocity, demographic appeal—will likely move this further as the opening approaches.
Right now 65% absorbs most confidence, reflecting broader skepticism about hitting such a specific band. The price is a fair read of uncertainty, not a forecast. Watch for updated tracking in the final two weeks.
FAQ
What does a 35% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 35% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 35% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to how much "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve thi
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What culture markets exist?
Box-office totals, the Oscars and other awards, music-chart and streaming milestones, and breakout-moment markets.
Why are spreads wider here?
Culture markets trade thinner than politics or crypto, so the gap between buy and sell prices can be larger.
Where can I trade them?
Polymarket and Kalshi list the most culture markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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