Would you bet…
Will Tarik Skubal win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 4% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $13,462 volume
- Resolves
- 12 Nov 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
Tarik Skubal is all but ruled out at 4%, a price that has climbed up 4 points. The Detroit Tigers left-hander would need an outlier season to win next year’s Cy Young—not impossible for a 27-year-old with stuff, but the market is pricing in the baseline: that one of the AL’s dozen-plus capable arms will outperform him over 162 games.
Skubal posted a 2.39 ERA last season with 228 strikeouts across 192 innings, numbers that land him in the conversation. But Cy Young voting rewards sustained excellence, and the AL has established stars (Cole, Rodon, Severino) plus rising talents with recent pedigree. For this price to move materially higher, Skubal would need to establish himself as the AL’s clear-cut ace over a full healthy season—something his injury history and the depth of competition make uncertain. A sub-2.50 ERA paired with 240+ strikeouts and a playoff run could shift calculus.
The $13k in liquidity suggests modest conviction either way. This is a live reading of consensus skepticism, not a foreclosure.
FAQ
What does a 4% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 4% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 4% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
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