Would you bet…
Will “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 7% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $8,565 volume
- Resolves
- 2 Aug 2026
- Updated
- 5 minutes ago
The market is pricing a sub-$200 million opening weekend for Spider-Man: Brand New Day as a long shot, with 7% taking the under. That sentiment down 5 points has slipped, suggesting traders are growing more confident the film will clear this threshold. With $9k in volume, liquidity remains thin—enough to see conviction, not enough to rule out sharp swings on news.
The price implies opening-weekend grosses north of $200 million domestically are heavily favored. Recent Spider-Man films have typically opened well above this line; only context shifts—delays, poor tracking, or franchise fatigue—would push a major MCU installment below it. The market’s current tilt suggests traders see little risk of that outcome.
Closing arguments matter here: early ticket sales, preview-night numbers, and any last-minute industry chatter about demand could shift odds in either direction. As it trades now, 93% reflects the base case. Watch for movement if tracking data tightens or Marvel’s promotional push signals anything less than strong consumer appetite.
FAQ
What does a 7% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 7% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 7% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What culture markets exist?
Box-office totals, the Oscars and other awards, music-chart and streaming milestones, and breakout-moment markets.
Why are spreads wider here?
Culture markets trade thinner than politics or crypto, so the gap between buy and sell prices can be larger.
Where can I trade them?
Polymarket and Kalshi list the most culture markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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