Would you bet…
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 58% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $4,797 volume
- Resolves
- 24 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 month ago
Traders on Polymarket currently price Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24? at 58% — the favored outcome. The figure reflects real money changing hands, not a poll, so it moves as new information lands.
How it resolves
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click…
The market is scheduled to settle on 24 Jul 2026. Until then the price is the live read on the question — worth watching, not a guarantee.
FAQ
What does a 58% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 58% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 58% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Fre
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What culture markets exist?
Box-office totals, the Oscars and other awards, music-chart and streaming milestones, and breakout-moment markets.
Why are spreads wider here?
Culture markets trade thinner than politics or crypto, so the gap between buy and sell prices can be larger.
Where can I trade them?
Polymarket and Kalshi list the most culture markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.