Would you bet…
Will Ashley Avignone be one of Taylor Swift’s bridesmaids? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 5% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $13,896 volume
- Resolves
- 30 Jun 2027
- Updated
- 5 days ago
5% has has slipped down 20 points, a meaningful pullback that suggests traders are pricing in real uncertainty about whether Avignone would land a spot in Swift’s wedding party. The market all but ruled out, but the recent move signals skepticism either about the wedding itself or about Avignone’s closeness to Swift relative to other candidates.
The resolution criteria hinge on two separate events: Swift and Kelce actually marrying, and Avignone being named as a bridesmaid. Either can fail independently. The second condition is particularly hard to forecast—Swift’s inner circle is large, her bridesmaid selections are not predetermined public knowledge, and Avignone’s status in that circle is opaque to outsiders. Trading $14k reflects the fundamental difficulty of calling this one.
Movement would come from engagement news (positive or negative), any public signal about Swift and Avignone’s relationship, or simply market drift as the wedding date approaches. At 5%, traders are betting on it, but not heavily. This is a live market read on a binary event with genuine information gaps.
FAQ
What does a 5% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 5% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 5% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is announced to be a bridesmaid at Taylor Swift's wedding to Travis Kelce. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Taylor Swift's engagement to Travis Kelce is called off, cancelled, or otherwise broken according to official stateme
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What culture markets exist?
Box-office totals, the Oscars and other awards, music-chart and streaming milestones, and breakout-moment markets.
Why are spreads wider here?
Culture markets trade thinner than politics or crypto, so the gap between buy and sell prices can be larger.
Where can I trade them?
Polymarket and Kalshi list the most culture markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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