Would you bet…
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 26% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $492,542 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 1 day ago
The market prices 2026 as an underdog to claim the hottest year on record, with 26% backing that outcome and 74% betting against it. The contract has climbed up 8 points, a meaningful swing that reflects real uncertainty about whether natural variability and underlying warming trends will combine to produce a record-breaking year.
The math is straightforward: 2026 must rank number one when ranked against all years in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. 2024 and 2025 are already shaping up as extraordinarily warm years, which raises the bar considerably. A 2026 record would require either a continuation of the current warming trajectory or a lucky convergence with a strong El Niño or other amplifying climate pattern. The resolution depends entirely on the published data once it becomes available.
Movement this week suggests growing conviction either way. Watch for updated forecasts of sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns through early 2026—early signals will likely tighten this spread. For now the price reflects genuine doubt: possible, but the market is not betting on it.
FAQ
What does a 26% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 26% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 26% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 202
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What culture markets exist?
Box-office totals, the Oscars and other awards, music-chart and streaming milestones, and breakout-moment markets.
Why are spreads wider here?
Culture markets trade thinner than politics or crypto, so the gap between buy and sell prices can be larger.
Where can I trade them?
Polymarket and Kalshi list the most culture markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
Before you trade
Read our independent reviews of the platforms behind these markets.