Would you bet…
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 89% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $5,418 volume
- Resolves
- 10 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 1 week ago
The market is strongly favored, pricing YES at 89%. This reflects a baseline expectation that the White House will post more than 200 times across that eight-day window—an average of 25 posts per day. in recent trading and has held, suggesting traders have settled on this view without recent conviction shifts. Volume sits at $5k, modest enough to leave room for repricing if new information arrives.
The resolution criteria are tight: only main feed posts, quotes, and reposts on @WhiteHouse count; replies do not, unless they surface on the main feed. Deleted posts count if captured within ~5 minutes. This specificity narrows the range of dispute. The math itself is straightforward—20 to 30 posts daily is plausible for an account of that prominence during a non-crisis week in July—but depends entirely on the White House’s actual posting cadence, which varies with news cycles and administrative priorities.
A price this high suggests traders see 200+ as the likely path. Movement to 11% would require either a significant change in expected White House activity levels or a shift in how traders weight the risk of the tracker missing posts. For now, the market 10 July 2026 via Polymarket, and this price is a live read on a quantifiable, auditable outcome.
FAQ
What does a 89% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 89% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 89% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of times White House (@WhiteHouse), posts on X between July 3, 12:00 PM ET and July 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however,
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
What culture markets exist?
Box-office totals, the Oscars and other awards, music-chart and streaming milestones, and breakout-moment markets.
Why are spreads wider here?
Culture markets trade thinner than politics or crypto, so the gap between buy and sell prices can be larger.
Where can I trade them?
Polymarket and Kalshi list the most culture markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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