Would you bet…
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 44% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $185,082 volume
- Resolves
- 31 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 3 minutes ago
The market prices a conviction at 44%, making it an underdog proposition. That’s a meaningful shift—the conviction bet up 8 points this week, and traders appear to be factoring in real uncertainty about Utah’s case against Tyler Robinson. With $185k in volume, there’s enough liquidity to suggest this isn’t a thin-market anomaly.
The gap between 44% and 56% reflects a genuine legal question. Robinson faces an Aggravated Murder charge in the death of Charlie Kirk, but aggravated murder and homicide convictions are not the same threshold. Utah prosecutors must prove premeditation and willfulness—a higher bar than a straight homicide finding. Plea deals, acquittals on the top charge, or conviction on a lesser count all resolve this to “No.” The two-year window to 31 December 2026 leaves time for trial outcomes, appeals, or negotiated resolutions to become clearer.
Watch what moves next: guilty pleas (which would likely trigger “Yes” under the resolution language), trial progress, and any prosecution statements about their evidence quality. For now, the price says the state’s case is real but not inevitable—a reasonable read on a capital-tier charge with no trial date yet public.
FAQ
What does a 44% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 44% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 44% likely.
How does this market resolve?
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homic
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
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