Would you bet…
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026? Predictions
A YES share pays out if this happens and NO pays out if it doesn’t — so the 47% price is just the market’s implied chance of YES. How YES/NO contracts work →
- Platform
- Polymarket
- Volume
- $2,175 volume
- Resolves
- 14 Jul 2026
- Updated
- 4 days ago
The market is a coin flip at 47% for zero posts from Khamenei in a seven-day window. $2k in total volume suggests light conviction either way, and in recent trading indicates has held, leaving little directional signal. The question hinges on one variable: Khamenei’s posting frequency on X during this specific week in July 2026.
Khamenei maintains an active account with irregular posting patterns—some weeks he posts multiple times daily, others see gaps of several days. A zero-post week is plausible but not the base case. The resolution mechanism counts main feed posts, quotes, and reposts, excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed. Posts deleted within five minutes still count if captured by the tracker, a detail that slightly widens what qualifies as activity.
To move this market materially, traders would need either new information about Khamenei’s communication plans for that specific week or historical analysis of his posting cadence that shifts probability estimates. The current a coin flip split reflects genuine uncertainty. Until July 7 approaches, expect drift driven mainly by broader market conditions rather than fundamental news.
FAQ
What does a 47% price mean?
It is the market-implied probability. A 47% YES price means traders collectively judge the event about 47% likely.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 7, 12:00 PM ET and July 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, r
Where can I trade it?
This market is listed on Polymarket. Prediction markets carry real financial risk and may not be available in every state.
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Why are spreads wider here?
Culture markets trade thinner than politics or crypto, so the gap between buy and sell prices can be larger.
Where can I trade them?
Polymarket and Kalshi list the most culture markets — see our reviews.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you trade contracts on whether a real-world event will happen. The live price moves with supply and demand and reads as the implied probability. Read more →
How do the odds work?
Every price between 1¢ and 99¢ is the implied chance of YES. A contract settles at $1 if it resolves yes and $0 if it does not. Read more →
Prediction market contracts carry real financial risk and can resolve to zero. 18+.
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