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Tech & AI Prediction Markets

Q: What tech markets can I trade?

AI model releases and benchmarks, big-tech IPOs, antitrust and regulatory outcomes, and product-launch timing.

Q: How current are these?

Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.

Q: Best place to trade tech & AI?

Polymarket and Kalshi carry the most tech and AI markets — see our reviews.

Tech and AI prediction markets price the milestones the industry keeps betting on — model releases, capability claims, IPOs, antitrust rulings and the race to the next breakthrough. The price is a live, real-money estimate of how likely each one is to land, and by when — often well before the press release.

Tech

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

New pandemic in 2026?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?

Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026?

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

Will GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?

Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?

US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?

Will Hong Kong have less than 400mm of precipitation in July?

Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Will Claude be restored for international customers by September 30?

Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?

Will Claude go down 0-2 times in July?

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?

Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026?

Will there be at least 1800 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026?

Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) <38%?

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026?

Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $3.00 on December 31, 2026?

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?

YES 78%

22% NO

$697 · Polymarket

What are Tech & AI prediction markets?

Tech and AI prediction markets price the milestones the industry keeps betting on — model releases, capability and benchmark claims, IPOs, antitrust rulings and the race to the next breakthrough. The price is a live, real-money estimate of how likely each milestone is, and by when — often well before the press release.

For people close to the industry these markets are a way to express a view on timelines: a “frontier model ships by Q4” contract at 65¢ implies about a 65% chance. Liquidity concentrates on the highest-profile questions, so the marquee AI and IPO markets trade deepest.

Where to trade Tech & AI markets

The deepest tech & ai markets trade on Kalshi and Polymarket. New accounts can compare current sign-up offers on our bonuses page, or see how every platform stacks up in our full reviews. New to this? Start with what a prediction market is.

Tech & AI markets FAQ

What tech markets can I trade?

AI model releases and benchmarks, big-tech IPOs, antitrust and regulatory outcomes, and product-launch timing.

How current are these?

Prices update continuously as news breaks, so the board reflects the latest read rather than a stale forecast.

Best place to trade tech & AI?

Polymarket and Kalshi carry the most tech and AI markets — see our reviews.